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Justin123
Traffic Value: $11,013.37121 Czech Republic
21/12/2015
12:50
what about 2 weeks average, but second week with double weight?(sumw1+2*sumw2)/3 /7 for daily average or something like this - giving more weight to recent results
druth8x
Traffic Value: $22,417.44153 United States
21/12/2015
12:56
Now you are just being silly.In no way am I suggesting anything that is that random. I really didn't want to go this route, but just how much schooling do you have on this aspect of mathematics? I'm not an expert, and it's more based on memory and logical thinking. I was taught quite a bit and was always good at math. However, what I've proposed is def better actual avg projection than what we've got, and easy enough to implement. OFC, to get an even better projected avg, we could give % weight to be more reliant on the yesterday stats vs 28th day stat (and 2 days vs 27th, but 2nd less than 1st and 27 more than 28). We could even do last week vs week 4 ago. All that is too much though, and I think it's you who is overthinking how avgs work...the bell curve is sound math. Even if you don't like that, 14 day or 28 day avg is better than 7 or 60 day. As long as we remain impartial, and let the math show what it shows, we won't be suiting it to fit our expectations, and thus we can feel much more confident in our projections. If you are so smart, and obviously want to spend time picking holes (where they really aren't as big as you make them out to be), why don't you come up with a more suitable "solution"?
DAngel1991
Traffic Value: $402.25802 Macedonia
21/12/2015
13:01
I could as well pair up a mathematician in my maths schooling. I have studied probability and statistics, calculus, linear algebra and discrete mathematics at university. I have also quite a few maths competitions behind my back. If that's what you asked... i am not saying your suggestions are bad, but you cannot remove 1/14 of the data and call it representative... And you need a solid criteria to determine outliers, the smallest one and the biggest one, that's not a criteria. Above/below certain value - that can be. How to determine that value is another thing. But you cannot remove every negative result, because having negative revenues when dealing with casino games is not an outlier, the possibility that it will happen are much higher, it's a normal thing. It is another thing if we got money from other sources, but right now the main source of income is the casino.
druth8x
Traffic Value: $22,417.44153 United States
21/12/2015
13:08
I don't claim they are rigged, given time, the house edge will be what they state it is, but there is no way I can see how they would allow the winnings, esp of overall value, to be front loaded so much. For instance If out of 100,000 plays 47,000 were winnings with a total of $470,000 in payouts, I don't see how they would let the game give out $250K in winnings in the first 10,000 plays, that's a $150K hole that we would need to recover from. OFC, maybe we've just been lucky...or what about that BlackJack that still isn't back up? Anyways, this is not at all what I wanted to talk about, as I feel like I'm almost making things up. Thus, it may not be true anyways. Cause, the number of smaller players can cover the bigger players, so if the big players get lucky early on, and not the smaller players, overall, actual payout cash wise is still fine.
DAngel1991
Traffic Value: $402.25802 Macedonia
21/12/2015
13:13
Who would want to play a game in the beginning if the probability to win is smaller? Usually a start pool is determined, no game is started without a back up pool, just in case someone gets lucky. We also have multiple games to cover that cost. The house edge exists from the very same beginning, and so does the chance of a huge win, but those chances are not big at all, it is more probable that things will start as they should.
druth8x
Traffic Value: $22,417.44153 United States
21/12/2015
13:31
I kinda felt you had schooling in the matter which is why I'm so confused as to why, at least for our purposes, while it's not perfect, you think it's not even worth considering b/c you think I'm taking out a big %, when in fact, I'm not, since it's both high and low, as I've explained, so the math reduces the %. Also why I thought maybe 50% of the highest and lowest and then turn it into 54 data points, will improve it even more.How is highest and lowest not representative enough? For instance, a certain brand of cake mix all at the same store, under same mgmt, same economic related matters, not on sale vs normal "fake sale" vs "get you in the store, even if it's a loss". $1.50 vs $1 vs $0.69. Obviously, if I don't want to buy a years worth of cake mix when ever it hits 69c, and yet I do in fact use a lot of it (I don't in rl, but say I do), while I could take the 2 weeks a year its 69c vs the 4 weeks a year it's $1.50 vs the 46 weeks a year it's $1, and be "ok" with budgeting for that avg. I'd much rather know I have a good chance at buying at $1, even if I plan just a little in advance. OFC, that was an oversimplification, as 10 for $10 is not 46 weeks a year, and I'm not sure about the other 2...and I think there are other numbers mixed in as well. And, yes, that actually doesn't show removing 2 highest and 2 lowest. It more shows mean vs median vs mode. The latter which isn't useful at all for our examples, even if we limited to to round to nearest $100 or $250. It's just not the right method here. Median might work, not sure if I like it as a reliable figure though, but it def would be somewhere close to the middle.
druth8x
Traffic Value: $22,417.44153 United States
21/12/2015
13:38
I'm saying in the first 10K plays, $4700 is won.Meaning, whatever the house edge is, it shows up very very fast. I def don't mean only $2350 is won. As that means the house is winning way too much. As far as other games, well not so much...we have 2 games that can hurt or help all on their own, even with just one lucky/unlucky player. If they play the new game and not those games, the portfolio of games won't be able to cover the loss. And, what makes you say we have reserve cash when we don't even have enough dev funds? The good thing is losses in the Casino mainy means FTQ repayment is longer, which might slow NEW FTQ investments (which is a nice portion of our dev funds), but still if it gets too big, and they chose to cashout, unlike RP transfers, we didn't get the money to pay for it from anyone, that day.
MichaelKline
Traffic Value: $960.97608 United States
22/12/2015
00:20
Active Debt = $64,882.76 - $2,078.44 = $62,804.32 [-$597.21]Current Group Debt = $1,571.05 [+$798.30] New Investments = $580.00 Last 7 days Revenue = $6500.12 Average Daily Revenue = $928.58 FTQ Length, based on 1 week avg = 68 days
MichaelKline
Traffic Value: $960.97608 United States
23/12/2015
01:21
Active Debt = $62,679.91 - $540.54 = $62,139.37 [-$664.95]Current Group Debt = $1,980.50 [+$409.45] New Investments = $340.00 Last 7 days Revenue = $5,591.48 Average Daily Revenue = $798.78 FTQ Length, based on 1 week avg = 78 days
jemb90
Traffic Value: $95.15524 Venezuela
23/12/2015
03:01
How good or bad are those numbers?
MichaelKline
Traffic Value: $960.97608 United States
24/12/2015
01:01
Active Debt = $63,242.26 - $1108.06 = $62,134.20 [-$5.17]Current Group Debt = $2,550.70 [+$570.2] New Investments = $458.00 Last 7 days Revenue = $6,173.12 Average Daily Revenue = $881.87 FTQ Length, based on 1 week avg = 71 days
MichaelKline
Traffic Value: $960.97608 United States
25/12/2015
00:12
Active Debt = $63,125.75 - $333.86 = $62,791.89 [+$657.69]Current Group Debt = $3,552.25 [+$1,001.55] New Investments = $780.00 Last 7 days Revenue = $6,911.3 Average Daily Revenue = $987.32 FTQ Length, based on 1 week avg = 64 days
MichaelKline
Traffic Value: $960.97608 United States
26/12/2015
00:23
Active Debt = $63,326.43 - $1,020.67 = $62,305.76 [-$486.13]Current Group Debt = $4,086.80 [+$534.55] New Investments = $418.00 Last 7 days Revenue = $6,820.24 Average Daily Revenue = $974.32 FTQ Length, based on 1 week avg = 64 days
Kerilithia
Traffic Value: $1,350.76645 Australia
26/12/2015
16:35
It is worth noting that the ftq has less then 10k left to pay out the company before we start getting our money.
MichaelKline
Traffic Value: $960.97608 United States
27/12/2015
17:46
Active Debt = $62,253.61 - $0.00 = $62,253.61 [-$52.15]Current Group Debt = $4,303.65 [+$216.85] New Investments = $173.00 Last 7 days Revenue = $6475.48 Average Daily Revenue = $925.06 FTQ Length, based on 1 week avg = 68 days Special Note: When there is a negative Fast Track payment, it is held against future revenues until it is covered. This will be reflected in the next report which will show a '- [2,107.51 - 698.98] =' in the top line. Keep in mind that, for a lot of the world, this is a time of celebration and spending time with family. I imagine that, come January 2nd, people will be flocking back online to make their mark on the web again. Things should start picking up then.
MichaelKline
Traffic Value: $960.97608 United States
27/12/2015
20:26
Last Week's New FTQ Investment Debt: $4,304.65Last Week's FTQ Fast Track Payments: $8,811.34 Difference: +$4,506.69 [Fast Track Payments]
MichaelKline
Traffic Value: $960.97608 United States
28/12/2015
03:23
Active Debt = $62,658.11 - [$2,107.51 - $698.98] = $61,249.58 [-$1,004.03]Current Group Debt = $134.50 [+$134.50] New Investments = $112.00 Last 7 days Revenue = $7,860.22 Average Daily Revenue = $1,122.88 FTQ Length, based on 1 week avg = 55 days
MichaelKline
Traffic Value: $960.97608 United States
29/12/2015
01:53
Active Debt = $61,370.31 - $1,169.80 = $60,200.51 [-$1,049.07]Current Group Debt = $255.25 [+$120.75] New Investments = $105.00 Last 7 days Revenue = $8,654.64 Average Daily Revenue = $1,236.37 FTQ Length, based on 1 week avg = 49 days
druth8x
Traffic Value: $22,417.44153 United States
29/12/2015
12:12
When Yesterday's $2900 pays PV, Jan 4th, it will end up also paying all of PV plus all of that same round, 93, plus the first 4 and some of this user Zanas, from Rd 94.Last 6 days revenue = $7484.88697 Leaves $296.22308 for Rd 94 to be paid off into. Which means Zanas will have $8.72308 paid off, and will have to wait for the next day for the rest. Thus, after Jan 4th, if investing today, "only" ~$53K debt ahead. BTW, per the "Deposit" thread update, Today's 1 week avg is also the 4 week aka Dec avg as well. Just under $1250/ day avg revenue seems to be a reasonable math going forward, for now, at least.
Axiantor
Traffic Value: $14,813.95087 Portugal
29/12/2015
12:42
Correct druth8x. Soon rounds will be payed faster than they are created. Will like to see the investments being made at that moment when users realize they have a trustful investment site with 130% return as they don't seem to see the picture now.
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