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Keeping Up With The FTQ

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MichaelKline Traffic Value: $960.97608 United States 7 like this post 0 people 17/12/2015 00:06 Active Debt = $58,130.2 - $1,320.21 = $56,809.99 [-714.76] Current Group Debt = $3,754.10 [+605.45] New Investments = $515.00 Last 7 days Revenue = $9,511.2 Average Daily Revenue = $1,358.74 FTQ Length, based on 1 week avg = 42 days druth8x Traffic Value: $22,417.44153 United States 2 like this post 0 people 17/12/2015 01:20 So, if I understand this right, irregardless to how much 7 day ago revenue effected the FTQ, the 16th had $605 added to the debt and $540, in 7 days, removed/paid. Granted, the 7 day ago removal/paid, actually made up for that difference and more. Also, I think many investors might be seeing that $80K+ keep climbing and once they see it drop, $48K, b/c MTV is done being paid, we will see an influx of fresh investments, at least to bring it back to ~$80K. MichaelKline Traffic Value: $960.97608 United States 8 like this post 0 people 18/12/2015 02:23 Active Debt = $64,872.64 - $1,549.04 = $63,323.60 [+6,513.61] Current Group Debt = $11,816.75 3,754.10 [+8,062.65] New Investments = $6,219.00 Last 7 days Revenue = $9,309.05 Average Daily Revenue = $1329.86 FTQ Length, based on 1 week avg = 48 days Wow! Marc put up a $4,990.00 FTQ Investment! I doubt anyone is gonna up that ante... [Feel free to make a liar outta me  ]  ...and congrats to pietro80 for just posting a $2000 Investment. That'll show up on tomorrow's post. MichaelKline Traffic Value: $960.97608 United States 10 like this post 0 people 19/12/2015 07:05 Active Debt = $66,447.75 - $303.20 = $66,144.55 [+$2,820.95] Current Group Debt = $14,941.1 [+3,124.35] New Investments = $2,421.00 Last 7 days Revenue = $8,093.87 Average Daily Revenue = $1,156.26 FTQ Length, based on 1 week avg = 58 days druth8x Traffic Value: $22,417.44153 United States 1 like this post 0 people 19/12/2015 07:10 Ouch, the added "major" investments ofc made it longer, but the avg revenue also went down significantly, "doubling down" on the ROI payment time. If we can get back up to $1400 avg, that's 47.5 days. richiem Traffic Value: $680.27326 Philippines 1 like this post 6 people 19/12/2015 11:37 Pv no longer invest in Ftq to make it more attractive. Then Ceo Marcdekoning put in $5k. Nice for making it less attractive again. druth8x Traffic Value: $22,417.44153 United States 3 like this post 0 people 19/12/2015 12:46 He gave it a few weeks...and it's still less than 2 months. In fact, we desp need the 99% of his salary for dev funds. Our revenue is ok enough, at least on avg, to pay him the 130%. Think bigger picture, please. MichaelKline Traffic Value: $960.97608 United States 3 like this post 0 people 19/12/2015 14:35 richiem That makes no sense at all... An investment is an investment. Doesn't matter who makes it. MichaelKline Traffic Value: $960.97608 United States 11 like this post 0 people 20/12/2015 04:46 Active Debt = $67,030.34 - $2,971.99 = $64,058.35 [-$2,086.20] Current Group Debt = $15,826.70 [+$885.6] New Investments = $687.00 Last 7 days Revenue = $8,811.34 Average Daily Revenue = $1,258.76 FTQ Length, based on 1 week avg = 51 days Last Week's New FTQ Investment Debt:: $15,826.70 Last Week's FTQ Fast Track Payments: $8,741.28 Difference: +$7,085.42  [New FTQ Investments] MichaelKline Traffic Value: $960.97608 United States 7 like this post 0 people 21/12/2015 06:58 Active Debt = $64,149.31 - $747.78 = $63,401.53 [-$656.82] Current Group Debt = $772.75 [+$772.75] New Investments =  $657.00 Last 7 days Revenue = $5,140.39 Average Daily Revenue = $734.34 FTQ Length, based on 1 week avg = 87 days lemao08 Traffic Value: $169.03014 Brazil 2 like this post 0 people 21/12/2015 10:50 Wow, 1 negative day, 36 days longer on average druth8x Traffic Value: $22,417.44153 United States 1 like this post 0 people 21/12/2015 11:00 Also removed a huge day (the nearly $3K). This is why I prefer the modifications I already mentioned, too much variance caused by 2 bad/good day. richiem Traffic Value: $680.27326 Philippines 1 like this post 0 people 21/12/2015 11:26 It's normal. The FTQ will take longer when there are negative results and will move faster with bigger results. druth8x Traffic Value: $22,417.44153 United States 1 like this post 1 people 21/12/2015 11:46 Richiem, well ofc, but more importantly, 60K debt ahead actually will probably still be closer to the 42 day avg than what is stated (87) b/c of the negative and no big day. We shouldn't see big variance if the long term projected avg is about the same. Just like the 60day avg takes time to settle down to the new norm, only 7 days worth of data points skews the projected avg way too much. We aren't getting a new norm with so few data points that it changes so dramatically. A happy medium, like 14 days, and/or taking out the highest and lowest, so the avg is more realistic is what I want that number to reveal. What we have now is proven to be too variable, and thus unreliable. Even 8-14 days from now, if you go with $1400 avg one week and $750 the next, your mature date will vary a lot. Last 7 days revenue is good to know for how much debt ahead you are. Other than that, whether $10K debt ahead is 7 days or 13 days away, or like now with the NEW FTQ purchase is 42 or 87, matters, and should be gauged better than a few data points that are unreliable as long term predictors. DAngel1991 Traffic Value: $402.25802 Macedonia 1 like this post 0 people 21/12/2015 11:51 You cannot do a 7 day average and take out 2 days of it because you didn't like them, that's taking out more than 25% of the data. An outlier is "once in a blue moon", not 1 out of 7. It does make sense to remove an outlier in 2 months or something, but "evening out" on one week is not a good idea. That's why the average that's displayed on the ftq length is not calculated from the last 7 days. That's definitely not representative enough. Taking out 1 out of 14 is again more than 7%, definitely not a good idea Also, it's acceptable that weekends have somewhat smaller revenues and Mondays have somewhat larger. I know it'd look fancy if the average is close to what you'd expect, but it's incorrect. richiem Traffic Value: $680.27326 Philippines 2 like this post 0 people 21/12/2015 11:52 I vote for a 14-day average. No to taking out outliers. druth8x Traffic Value: $22,417.44153 United States 1 like this post 0 people 21/12/2015 12:01 Its not taking out what I don't want, but taking out the outliers of the bell curve, both the great and horrible, but keeping the avg, the good and the not so good. If a 28 day avg is better, mathematically, that works as well, in fact that's what I first proposed. DAngel1991 Traffic Value: $402.25802 Macedonia 1 like this post 0 people 21/12/2015 12:17 1 out of 28 is again over 3.5% You cannot call 3.5% of the data outliers, then your data will not be representative.  druth8x Traffic Value: $22,417.44153 United States 1 like this post 0 people 21/12/2015 12:30 Yeah, it would have to be 2/28...b/c I take out the high and the low. Which, btw, is better for the high % than what you insist is too high. As I'm, taking both sides therefore, If they were equal parts away from the avg say $2800 and $0 vs a $1400 avg, I technically didn't even do anything to the avg. And, if it was $2000 and $1000, well, I only change the avg slightly, even though it was too high a %. That is the key, taking out both equal data points from each end, not just one. Unfortunately, as both too short and too long are too variable/not reliable enough, we have to work with what we can get. Maybe, just maybe, we could take only 50% away from the highest and lowest, and then avg it out of 54 (54, not 56, right?) then times it by 2. But how does Andraz determine the house edge on games? I know it's 100s of thousands, but still the house can't start out losing a lot (and by a lot I mean 10s of thousands) on avg at first, b4 the house avg kicks in. So, somehow, the games are "rigged" enough that we don't give out a high portion of the best results possible in the beginning even though statistically, they very well could come at the beginning. DAngel1991 Traffic Value: $402.25802 Macedonia 1 like this post 1 people 21/12/2015 12:40 And how about we sort the last 15 days and take the value of the 8th day from that sort? That's not how averaging works...  EDIT: Why do you claim the games are rigged?

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